A few second (and third) points about the Scooter Libby indictment.
In one respect the whole thing is really no real big deal. I follow politics as closely as any layman, and I have to confess that, before this investigation started, I had never heard of Scooter Libby. I suspect most people outside the beltway are in the same category.
And the indictment is very, very narrow. It is not about how the President "lied" about the reasons for war in Iraq. It is not even about how the vindictive Bush Administration tried to crush Joe Wilson for the crime of "speaking truth to power". And the indictment is not about "outing" Valerie Plame, in fact the indictment never even alleges that she was a covert agent. Rather, the indictment is very narrowly focused on establishing that a single government official lied to investigators and the grand jury.
But, at that very focused task, Fitzgerald shows himself to be a real pro. (Unlike, for example, the clown who drafted the Tom Delay indictments). Take, for example, the allegation that Libby lied to the grand jury. According to the indictment, Libby testified that he first learned that Wilson's wife worked at the CIA during a July 10, 2003 conversation with Tim Russert. The indictment marshals a host of evidence that Libby had earlier knowledge, including -
- A conversation with the Vice President, who told Libby that Wilson's wife was CIA;
- A senior CIA officer who told Libby the same thing;
- An Undersecretary of State who informed Libby of Wilson's wife's status;
- And an Assistant to the Vice President who - you get the idea.
And prior to the conversation with Russert, the indictment alleges that Libby had conversations with Judith Miller and the White House Press Secretary, in which he told them that Wilson's wife was a spook.
I have little doubt that Fitzgerald has all this evidence in the can (i.e. locked up in sworn grand jury testimony). A sharp lawyer can discredit some of this testimony, but it will be tough shooting down all of it.
One possible out for Libby is claiming faulty memory. As a practicing attorney, it always amazed me how people forget things. I would put a letter in front of a witness he or she had written, and for the life of me could not figure out how the witness could have absolutely no recollection of it. That is, until my own deposition was taken one day, and I was asked about some letters I had written over a year ago. I answered something like "well, that's my signature, so I guess I wrote them, but darned if I remember". And a guy like Libby probably has more important communications in a day than most people have in a week.
Two additional points. First, people are saying that more indictments may be handed down. But the grand jury's term has expired, and you would expect a pro like Fitzgerald to bring any indictments before the grand jury that has spent the last two years hearing testimony. Sure, Fitzgerald can ask a new grand jury for additional indictments, but the new grand jury would have to be brought up to speed, and it isn't the way you would expect things to be done.
Finally, people have been saying that Libby faces a potential jail term of 30 years. My God, does no one in TV land know how to work the Sentencing Guidelines. I know they aren't mandatory anymore, but federal judges are still expected to try to apply them. And a quick review of those guidelines (hey, I'm not getting paid for any of this) leads me to think that Libby is looking at a sentencing range of 30-37 months if convicted at trial (with 21-27 months on a plea deal).
